372 axpz20 knhc 062157 twdep
Tropical weather discussion NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 06 2009
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n...east of 140w.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
The intertropical convergence zone is along the line...07n78w to 05n90w to 07n100w to 08n110w to 08n125w to 05n140w. Scattered moderate from 05n to 08n E of 82w.
Other convection N of the ITCZ... scattered moderate from 12n to 14n between 119w and 122w.
...Discussion...
Trades... an amplified and progressive upper pattern is forecast to continue this week...with an upper ridge W of 117w and a corresponding 1033 mb surface high centered in the central Pacific near 34n135w. NE trades winds of 20 to 25 kt are affecting areas S of the surface high. These winds are enhanced around the northern periphery of a surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extending from 13n124w to 08n126w. The high is forecast to slowly sink southeastward and weaken during the next couple of days...with a gradual relaxation of the trade winds. The surface trough is forecast to persist as it slowly drifts eastward during the next couple of days. This is the result of an upper low becoming cut off from the longwave trough currently extending from the SW conus into the E Pacific region. The trade winds are expected to produce sea heights of 8 to 12 ft through midweek...with similar wave heights in northwesterly swell arriving from the N Pacific by midweek.
Gulfs of papagayo and Panama... the trade winds are funneling through the gulfs of papagayo and Panama...resulting in 20-kt winds around those locations. These winds will be supported across the Gulf of Panama by the steeper pressure gradient near a 1008 mb surface low at 07n79w. This low is expected to persist during the next day with a diffluent upper pattern over the low.
Gulf of Tehuantepec... the aforementioned upper trough extending from the SW conus into the E Pacific region is forecast to move eastward through midweek. This trough is forecast to catch up to a surface front currently over the NW Gulf...dragging the front southeastward mid to late week. This front will be followed by a surface high over central Mexico. Correspondingly...northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will likely increase by Wednesday night... supporting northerly winds to 20 kt.
Gulf of California... northerly flow between the 1033 mb surface high over the central Pacific and a surface trough over the Southern Plains of the conus is resulting in northerly winds of 20 to 25 kt S of the Gulf of California. These winds are based on a recent Quikscat pass and a ship report. This area of stronger winds is forecast to translate northward into the Gulf of California as the surface high moves eastward during the next couple days.
$$ Cohen/Formosa
372
axpz20 knhc 062157
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 06 2009
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean
from the Equator to 32n...east of 140w.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
The intertropical convergence zone is along the line...07n78w to
05n90w to 07n100w to 08n110w to 08n125w to 05n140w. Scattered
moderate from 05n to 08n E of 82w.
Other convection N of the ITCZ...
scattered moderate from 12n to 14n between 119w and 122w.
...Discussion...
Trades...
an amplified and progressive upper pattern is forecast to
continue this week...with an upper ridge W of 117w and a
corresponding 1033 mb surface high centered in the central
Pacific near 34n135w. NE trades winds of 20 to 25 kt are
affecting areas S of the surface high. These winds are enhanced
around the northern periphery of a surface trough embedded
within the ITCZ extending from 13n124w to 08n126w. The high is
forecast to slowly sink southeastward and weaken during the next
couple of days...with a gradual relaxation of the trade winds.
The surface trough is forecast to persist as it slowly drifts
eastward during the next couple of days. This is the result of
an upper low becoming cut off from the longwave trough currently
extending from the SW conus into the E Pacific region. The trade
winds are expected to produce sea heights of 8 to 12 ft through
midweek...with similar wave heights in northwesterly swell
arriving from the N Pacific by midweek.
Gulfs of papagayo and Panama...
the trade winds are funneling through the gulfs of papagayo and
Panama...resulting in 20-kt winds around those locations. These
winds will be supported across the Gulf of Panama by the steeper
pressure gradient near a 1008 mb surface low at 07n79w. This
low is expected to persist during the next day with a diffluent
upper pattern over the low.
Gulf of Tehuantepec...
the aforementioned upper trough extending from the SW conus into
the E Pacific region is forecast to move eastward through
midweek. This trough is forecast to catch up to a surface front
currently over the NW Gulf...dragging the front southeastward
mid to late week. This front will be followed by a surface high
over central Mexico. Correspondingly...northerly winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will likely increase by Wednesday night...
supporting northerly winds to 20 kt.
Gulf of California...
northerly flow between the 1033 mb surface high over the central
Pacific and a surface trough over the Southern Plains of the
conus is resulting in northerly winds of 20 to 25 kt S of the
Gulf of California. These winds are based on a recent Quikscat
pass and a ship report. This area of stronger winds is forecast
to translate northward into the Gulf of California as the
surface high moves eastward during the next couple days.
$$
Cohen/Formosa
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